Looking for an edge when betting the Week 11 action in the NFL? Here are my five best bets for Sunday.
Browns at Lions, 1:00 p.m. ET, Detroit
According to oddsmakers, the Lions are 10.5-point home favorites to beat the winless Browns today. That said, the underdog has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams. The Lions have also struggled to cover at home while posting a 1-5 ATS record in their last six games at Ford Field. The kicker: Detroit is just 4-9 against the spread in its last 13 games overall.
NFL Prediction: Cleveland Browns +10.5
Saints at Bills, 1:00 p.m. ET, Buffalo
The Saints opened as a 2.5-point road favorite but the line has climbed to 3 for today’s game in Buffalo. In the Bills’ last 17 home games, the over has cashed 14 times. The over is also 14-6 in the Bills’ last 20 games overall and is 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss. On the other side, the over is 4-1 in the Saints’ last five games versus a team with a winning record.
NFL Prediction: Over 48
Jets at Bucs, 1:00 p.m. ET, Tampa
These two teams are a combined 6-11 straight up and most of that is the Bucs, who fell to 2-6 with their loss last week. Jameis Winston will miss a few weeks due to a shoulder injury but don’t just assume that because he’s out that today’s game will be low-scoring. I actually see an ugly, turnover-filled shootout that cashes for bettors early in the fourth quarter. We’ve already seen the total jump from 41 to 43.5, so wiseguys have the same thought process.
NFL Prediction: Over 43.5
Steelers at Colts, 1:00 p.m. ET, Indianapolis
Here’s another over that I like in Week 10. The Colts are allowing nearly 29.0 points per game this season. Unless they’re facing Tom Savage, they can’t do anything right defensively. They’re 31st in yards allowed and 31st in pass defense entering today’s action. Good luck defending Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell and JuJu Smith-Schuster on that fast track, Indy.
NFL Prediction: Over 45
Patriots at Broncos, 8:30 p.m. ET, Denver
Small rant here: It used to be that skilled handicappers could see which side the public was on and load up on the other team. If it looked too easy, fade the consensus and cash. But over the past 5-6 years, either the public has gotten smarter or Vegas oddsmakers aren’t properly setting their lines because John Q. Public Bettor has fared well for himself. That said, tonight is one of those games where I want my faith renewed in betting against the public. There’s absolutely no reason to back the Broncos tonight at home against Tom Brady and the Patriots, who are coming off a bye. No reason. Denver has looked horrendous over its last four games, which has included losses to the Giants as a 13.5-point home favorite on national television, a 21-0 shutout at the hands of the Chargers, a 29-19 turnover fest against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, and this-is-rock-bottom performance last week in a 51-23 loss to the Eagles. Still, with nearly 70% of the tickets on New England tonight, I’m fading the public and going with Denver.
NFL Prediction: Denver Broncos +7.5