New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians, 7/12/2018 Prediction & Odds
The best pitching matchup in baseball on Thursday night will be in Cleveland when the Indians host the Yankees. Despite Luis Severino taking on Corey Kluber, is the over still a good play for bettors?
Game Snapshot & Odds
963 New York Yankees at 964 Cleveland Indians
Thursday, July 12, 2018
7:10 p.m. ET, Progressive Field
TV: NYY (YES); CLE (STO)
Public Betting Trends
Oddsmakers from online sportsbooks currently list the Yankees as a -120 favorite. As of this writing, 54% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Yankees to beat the Indians on the moneyline.
Yankees’ Severino done after five innings vs. Blue Jays
Luis Severino surrendered three runs on five hits over five innings in Saturday’s win over the Blue Jays. Severino was coming off a dominant gem of a performance against the Red Sox in his previous outing, but he was more up-and-down in Saturday’s followup showing versus the Blue Jays. After the Yankees spotted him an early 4-0 lead, the Cy Young candidate coughed up a two-run home run to Kevin Pillar in the second inning, with the final run on his line later coming home on a solo dinger surrendered to Randal Grichuk in the fourth inning.
Severino wrapped his afternoon having struck out five and walked two. Prior to Saturday’s slight stumbles, Severino had fired off scoreless outings in three of his last four starts. Next up on the docket, a road date with the Indians. Sevy will carry a 2.12 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 143/31 K/BB ratio (123 1/3 innings) into that affair.
Indians’ Kluber throws gem but bullpen blows a potential win
Corey Kluber scattered five hits over seven shutout innings while taking a no-decision in Saturday’s 11-inning loss to the A’s. Kluber deserved a win, here, but the bullpen was unable to hold a 3-0 eighth-inning lead after he handed off the baton. The ace right-hander struck out three and walked two on the afternoon and threw 102 pitches — 63 strikes — over his seven innings of work. With this no-decision in the books, Kluber will put a 2.49 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 123/15 K/BB ratio (126 1/3 innings) on the line in a home showdown with the Yankees when he next trots out to toe the rubber.
MLB Betting Trends
New York
The Yankees are 18-3 in Severino’s last 21 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.
Cleveland
The Indians are just 1-4 in their last five games overall.
Prediction:
Cleveland home games have produced more winning ‘overs’ than any other situation in baseball this year. The over is 27-7-2 in the Tribe’s last 36 home games. It is also 21-5-2 in their last 28 home games versus a right-handed starter and 4-1-1 in their last six games overall.
If you’re worried about the pitching matchup producing a low-scoring game, consider the over is 12-3-1 in Kluber’s last 16 starts. The over is also a perfect 9-0 in Severino’s last nine starts versus American League Central opponents.
The Pick: Yankees/Indians over 7
