MLB Predictions: An ALDS Pitching Matchup for the Ages. 10/5/17

Posted on October 5, 2017

If you like high scoring affairs the 4:05 PM ET ALDS Game One Pick Boston vs Houston might not be for you. The Boston Red Sox have Chris Sale going in the first game of the playoffs – the likely AL Cy Young Award winner. The Houston Astros counter with Justin Verlander, who hasn’t lost since joining the Astros at the trade deadline.

Odds

Realistically either team could have been listed as favorites and it wouldn’t have been a surprise but oddsmakers decided to list the home team Astros at -134. That provides some pretty good value for Sale and the Red Sox at +121. This is actually the first time all season that Boston has been an underdog in one of Sale’s starts. As expected, the total has been set microscopically low at “7.”

Red Sox

Boston makes the postseason for the second straight year and acquired Sale in the offseason from Chicago as a way to not repeat last year’s ALDS sweep by the Indians. It’s Sale’s first time pitching in the postseason but manager John Farrell said he’s not afraid to use his ace on short rest the rest of the series. You’ll hear a lot about Sale’s struggles in September after he allowed 12 earned runs in three of his five starts in the month. The other two outings were shutouts however including a 13K against Baltimore on September 20th – other pitchers in the MLB would love to struggle like that. Sale hasn’t faced Houston this season, but Astros batters are hitting only .209 in their careers against the lefty. The ALDS Game One Pick Boston vs Houston relies a lot on if Sale can keep his nerves in check.

Astros

Detroit is wondering if they kept the receipt on trading Verlander to the Astros at the end of August because the Tigers are thinking they should have asked for more from Houston. That’s because Verlander has done nothing but gone 5-0 in his five starts with the Astros, allowing just 4ER total. He’s thrown a couple 1-hitters in that span and has struck out 43 in 34 IP. Even though Houston missed the playoffs last year, Verlander should calm the Astros’ players nerves as he makes his 17th career postseason start in the ALDS Game One Pick Boston vs Houston. Boston batters are hitting just .211 against the right hander. The powerful Red Sox combo of Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Dustin Pedroia are a combined 5 for 54 against Verlander – a .092 average.

MLB Predictions: ALDS Game One Boston vs Houston

No matter who you bet on in this one your friends can’t really ridicule you. Is it a mistake to wager on a pitcher with postseason experience taking the mound at home after one of the most impressive September’s in recent memory? Are you going on a ledge placing a bet on the likely AL Cy Young winner who has struck out 308 this year and has tossed shutouts in two of his last four starts?

There likely isn’t going to be a lot of runs early which means the Boston bullpen depth could be the difference. David Price is available for multiple innings and Craig Kimbrel can pitch a two inning save if needed. If Boston can get to Verlander, they’ll shorten the game – or just let Sale dominate and finish it off. Of course getting to Verlander is a big “if” – but we’ll take it in the ALDS Game One Pick Boston vs Houston.