Is New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees a good bet to lead the NFL in passing again this season?
The Favorite: Drew Brees (3/1)
According to oddsmakers, Brees is a 3/1 favorite to lead the league in passing for a fourth consecutive season. The Saints signal-caller threw for 5,208 passing yards a year ago, which lead the NFL. It was the fifth time in Brees’ career that he threw for over 5,000 yards in a single season.
The Challenger: Tom Brady (6/1)
Brady has 6/1 odds to unseat Brees and lead the NFL in passing this season. The Patriots armed Brady with a new weapon thanks to the trade accusation of Brandin Cooks (ironically, Brees’ former teammate in New Orleans). Cooks provide the one thing New England’s offense was missing since Randy Moss: A legitimate deep threat to stretch the field vertically. Rob Gronkowski is also back from injury and Brady won’t serve a four-game suspension this season like he did a year ago. He will post eye-popping numbers.
Also in the Mix Matt Ryan (8/1), Aaron Rodgers (10/1), Derek Carr (10/1)
The next three quarterbacks listed by oddsmakers are Ryan, Rodgers and Carr. Ryan is coming off a career year in which he won an MVP award following a 4,944-yard, 38-touchdown performance. He won’t have Kyle Shanahan as his play-caller again in 2017, but Ryan leads one of the most dangerous offenses in football.
Rodgers is also coming off an excellent season, throwing for 4,428 yards and 40 touchdowns to just seven interceptions. And had Carr not gotten hurt, the Raiders may have made more noise in last year’s playoffs. Armed with a new contract, Carr could be in store for a breakout campaign.
Our Prediction
Brees is the favorite but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t value in his 3/1 odds. He’s the only quarterback in the NFL that I could see breaking the 5,000-yard mark this season and given how poor New Orleans’ defense is, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to sling the ball all over the field.
As for the rest of the contenders, Ryan is due for a regression, Rodgers, despite all of his success, has never lead the NFL in passing and Brady hasn’t accomplished the feat since his record-setting year in 2007.
NFL Passing Yards 2017 Leader Prediction: Drew Brees 3/1