NFL Predictions: Panthers too risky of a bet to cover vs. Patriots? 10/1/17
Are the Panthers too much of a risk to bet today against the Patriots in New England?
The Matchup: Panthers at Patriots, 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday
Both teams enter play having won two of their first three games in 2017. The Panthers started 2-0 before being thumped last week by the Saints. The Patriots started 0-1 but have rebounded to win back-to-back games. Carolina is 1-0 on the road, while New England is 1-1 at home.
According to oddsmakers, Tom Brady and Co. are 9-point home favorites today. Carolina also opened as a 9-point underdog so there hasn’t been much line movement for this game. The total, meanwhile, sits at 49.5 points after opening at 47.5.
Panthers Betting Trends
The Panthers are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six road games. They also are 4-1 against the number in their last five games coming off an ATS loss. In their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, the team is 8-3.
That said, they’re just 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots Betting Trends
The Patriots are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games following a victory. They are also 13-5-2 against the spread in their last 20 home games. In their last 28 games at the betting window overall, they are 20-8 ATS.
Finally, New England is 33-16-2 against the spread in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.
Our Prediction
Something has to give in this matchup. Carolina has been slow out of the gates offensively, while New England has looked vulnerable defensively.
Despite Cam Newton’s struggles to rebound from a shoulder injury, I’d rather put faith in a problematic offense than a defense that is giving up plenty of yards and points. New England has no pass rush and if the Panthers can get their ground game moving, perhaps Newton will finally shake off the rust.
Carolina is stout enough defensively to keep within the nine points this afternoon.
NFL Week 4 Predictions: Carolina Panthers +9
