MLB Predictions: Will Mariners vs. Orioles go over betting total? 8/28/17

MLB Predictions

Will tonight’s Mariners and Orioles matchup go over the betting total tonight at 7:05PM ET?

The Matchup: Mariners vs. Orioles, 7:05PM ET, Camden Yards

According to oddsmakers, Baltimore is a -122 money line favorite to beat Seattle at home. That makes the Mariners +112 money line underdogs to pull off the upset. The total, meanwhile, is sitting at 10.5 runs.

Seattle enters play tonight having won six of its last 10 games but having dropped two in a row to the Yankees over the weekend. That puts the M’s record at 66-65 on the year and 32-33 on the road.

As for Baltimore, the Orioles are hot, winners of six of their last 10 games and four straight. They’re stuck at .500 at 65-65 and are 38-26 at home this season.

The Pitching Matchup: Marco Gonzales (SEA) vs. Chris Tillman (BAL)

Gonzales took the loss in his last outing, which came on August 22 in Atlanta. He pitched well, allowing two runs on six hits, but lasted just 4 2/3 innings. He stuck out five, walked three and allowed a home run in the process.

On the other side, Tillman took a no-decision against the Angels on August 20. He did not pitch well, surrendering four runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings of work. He walked six and struck out two while allowing two home runs on the night.

Our Prediction

Yes, I like the over. But the Orioles might be an even better play.

Baltimore is a perfect 6-0 in Tillman’s last six home starts versus the Mariners and have won eight of his last 10 outings versus Seattle overall. The O’s have also won six straight series-openers and are 7-2 in their last nine games versus an opponent with a winning record.

Meanwhile, the Mariners have dropped 20 of their last 29 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in its previous game. Gonzales has not pitched well since Seattle acquired him from St. Louis and he’s facing a red-hot Orioles lineup tonight. While I don’t trust Tillman, I’ll take the hot team going against a struggling starter at home.

Monday MLB Prediction: Baltimore Orioles -122

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