MLB Predictions: Is the total set too high in Tigers vs. Royals? 7/19/17

Astros vs. Royals

Is the total set too high in tonight’s Tigers and Royals matchup at 8:15PM ET?

The Matchup: Tigers vs. Royals, 8:15PM ET, Kauffman Stadium

Detroit enters play with a 43-49 record and is 18-28 on the road. Kansas City, meanwhile, is 45-47 on the year and 25-23 at home. While the Tigers have won six of their last 10 games, the Royals have dropped seven of htier last 10 contests.

According to oddsmakers, Detroit is -107 on the money line to win tonight’s game, while Kansas City is -103. As for the total, the number hit the board at 9.5 but has been bet up to 10.

The Pitching Matchup: Justin Verlander (DET) vs. Jason Hammel (KC)

Verlander enters play with a 5-7 record and owns a bloated 4.66 ERA. In his last start, which came on July 14 against the Blue Jays at home, he allowed three runs on three hits over 5 1/3 innings. He took the loss in Detroit’s 7-2 defeat. Verlander struck out five but walked three.

Hammel, meanwhile, is 4-8 on the year and owns a 5.02 ERA. He allowed three runs on four hits over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Rangers. Hammel struck out four and walked one while allowing one home run.

Our Prediction

The under is 11-5-2 in Verlander’s last 18 starts versus a team with a losing record. It is also 18-7-1 in Verlander’s last 26 outings when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.

On the other side, the under is 5-1-1 in the Royals’ last seven games following a loss. It is also 5-2-1 in Kansas City’s last eight games and 4-1 in Hammel’s last five starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous contest.

Wednesday MLB Prediction: Tigers/Royals under 10

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