MLB Predictions: Are Cardinals safe bet to beat Reds? 4/30/17
Are the Cardinals a safe bet to beat the Reds behind Mike Leake today at 2:15PM ET at Busch Stadium?
The Odds
According to oddsmakers, the Cardinals are -164 money line favorites versus the Reds. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has odds of +154 to pull off the upset today in St. Louis. With Leake set to face Bronson Arroyo in the pitching matchup, the over/under sits at 8.5 runs.
Reds have not been good bet with Arroyo
The Reds have not been a profitable play for bettors when Arroyo toes the rubber. They’re 3-7 in his last 10 starts and have dropped six of his last outings against National League Central rivals. Cincinnati has also dropped seven of Arroyo’s last 10 starts when he faces a team with a winning record. The Reds have lost four straight overall as well.
Leake hasn’t been profitable for Cardinals at home
Leake has been fantastic for the Redbirds this season. He’s 3-1 on the year with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. He’s been the team’s best pitcher, which includes ace Carlos Martinez, who has struggled. That said, the Cardinals are just 1-5 in Leake’s last six home starts and are 2-5 in his last seven outings versus NL Central rivals.
MLB Predictions
The Cardinals have won six of their last seven home games and are 4-0 in their last four games versus NL Central rivals. They’ve also won six of their last seven home games when facing a right-handed starter and are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.
Futhermore, the Reds are winless at 0-7 in Arroyo’s last seven starts against the Cardinals. Cincinnati has also dropped all four of Arroyo’s last four road starts versus St. Louis and is 27-59 in its last 86 road games versus the Cardinals. Arroyo pitched in St. Louis earlier this season and was crushed. I expect the same result today.
Sunday MLB Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals -164
