College Football Week 11 Predictions Against the Spread 11/11/17
Which college football teams are the best bets to cover in Week 11? Here are our predictions against the spread for Saturday.
Georgia at Auburn, 3:30 p.m. ET
According to oddsmakers, the Bulldogs are 2.5-point road favorites to beat the Tigers after this game opened as a pick’em. Plenty of touts and national talking heads are backing Auburn in what they believe will be a small upset. Even though I like to stay away from public teams, I’m on Georgia. Both teams play defense and both run the ball well. But what has UGA done to make anyone bet against them this season? The answer to me is nothing. No, freshman quarterback Jake Fromm has not been tested yet. He may have to win a game with his arm if the Dawgs are going to win a conference or national title. But I have more faith in Georgia’s ability to protect Fromm than I do Auburn’s ability to protect its signal-caller, Jarrett Stidham.
Prediction: Georgia Bulldogs -2.5
Alabama at Mississippi State, 7:00 p.m. ET
Unlike the Georgia-Auburn matchup, I am against the public here. As of this writing, the Crimson Tide is receiving 65% of the tickets ahead of tonight’s SEC clash in Starkville. The problem with backing ‘Bama and laying the points is that the Tide are severely banged-up on defense. Linebackers Shaun Dion Hamilton and Christian Miller are out for the season. Mack Wilson is out until mid December with a foot injury. Defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick is questionable tonight with a hamstring injury. Usually it’s business as usual for Nick Saban’s deep team: “Next man up.” That said, I think these specific injuries will change the way Saban approaches this game. I could see Saban and his coaching staff focus on running the ball to shorten the game and protect its defense. Thus, I see this game being a lot closer than oddsmakers believe.
Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs +14
TCU at Oklahoma, 8:00 p.m. ET
This is a pivotal matchup in the Big 12. The winner sets itself up not only to play in the conference title game, but also remain on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. I love Baker Mayfield and I hate betting against him. When the game is on the line, he has a knack of rising up and elevating those around him. I just don’t trust the Sooners defense. TCU hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut of late (just 31 combined points the last two weeks versus Iowa State and Texas). That said, OU ranks 109th in pass defense, 86th in total defense, and 76th in points allowed. I don’t like laying this many points to a ranked team that plays good defense.
Prediction: TCU Horned Frogs +7 (buy the hook)
Notre Dame at Miami, 8:00 p.m. ET
If I’m only playing one on Saturday, I’m playing Notre Dame. This is a bigger mismatch than it looks on paper, with both teams ranked in the top 10 entering play tonight. The Fighting Irish rank fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game at 324.8. The backfield tandem of quarterback Brandon Wimbush and running back Josh Adams has been unstoppable at times. Wimbush leads Notre Dame in touchdowns with 13, while Adams has rushed for 1,191 yards to this point. The Fighting Irish utilize the read-option and often run it to perfection. Miami, meanwhile, allows 172.1 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 68th in FBS. When you look at some of the advanced numbers, the Hurricanes are worse against the run than those standard statistics would indicate. Not to mention, I don’t trust Malik Rosier, who threw three interceptions last week in the win over Virginia Tech. He’s made huge plays in the fourth quarter of games but he’s not efficient and neither is Miami’s offense. I love Notre Dame tonight.
Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3 (buy the hook)
