College Football: LSU vs. Alabama Predictions Against the Spread 11/4/17
Is Alabama laying too many points to conference rival LSU tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET?
The Matchup: Miami at Alabama, 8:00 p.m. ET, Tuscaloosa
The Tigers head into Week 10 with a 6-2 record and a 2-1 mark away from Baton Rouge. LSU is just 3-4 against the spread, however, and 1-2 ATS on the road.
As for the Crimson Tide, Nick Saban’s bunch enter play with a perfect 8-0 record. Alabama is also 5-0 at home. At the betting window, the Tide is 4-4 against the spread and 2-3 ATS at home.
The Odds: Alabama Favored Big
According to oddsmakers, the Crimson Tide is a 21-point home favorite tonight. LSU opened as a 21.5-point underdog but the line was bet down a half-point. The total, meanwhile, is now sitting at 47 points after hitting the board at 51.5.
LSU Tigers
LSU HC Ed Orgeron confirmed that junior RB Derrius Guice is completely healthy. With the Tigers on bye last week, Guice was given several days off of practice. Those were merely rest days, as Coach O had suggested he intended to do after the Ole Miss game. In that one, Guice went off for 276 yards on 22 carries (12.5 YPC average). LSU has a big game on deck Saturday against Alabama. We leave you with Coach O’s interesting comp for Guice: Warren Sapp. “He runs the ball like Warren Sapp played defensive line. He runs is violently. He’ll run over you, run around you. He’s quick, has good vision. Rarely has a fumble. He’s tough. And the more he gets hit the more he gets going.”
Alabama Crimson Tide
With Alabama sophomore QB Jalen Hurts on deck Saturday, LSU has limited the three recent starting quarterbacks faced to no more than 165 passing yards. This is a great point by Matt Zenitz, and the three quarterbacks don’t lack big names, including Jarrett Stidham of Auburn and Shea Patterson of Ole Miss. In fact, those quarterbacks completed just 44 percent of their passes. Hurts has only surpassed 200 passing yards once this season, but he has been very consistent in that area of the offense.
Our Prediction
This is too many points, plain and simple. Alabama hasn’t been the same spread team that it was when Lane Kiffin was calling plays, instead going back to Nick Saban’s ground-and-pound roots. LSU, meanwhile, is not the same “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense where it tries to run between the tackles while attempting to out-physical opponents. Now the Tigers attack the edge. ‘Bama has the defense to play against any offense, but regardless, I see this being a more competitive game than oddsmakers do.
College Football Week 10 Prediction: LSU Tigers +21
